New research reveals how climate change is transforming Pacific fisheries and aquaculture
A new scientific analysis released at the UN climate summit known as COP30 earlier this month shows that climate change is transforming Pacific fisheries and aquaculture at every scale, from coastal communities to oceanic tuna stocks. The Pacific Community (SPC), a regional scientific and technical organization headquartered in New Caledonia, published the ten-chapter book, which was co-edited by Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions lead scientist Colette Wabnitz.
Drawing on contributions from 50 scientists and practitioners representing 32 scientific institutions across the Pacific and beyond, the book provides the most comprehensive evidence base for making climate-informed decisions in the region, with the latest data on warming trends, declining habitat quality, and shifting species distributions.
“The Pacific Islands are at the frontlines of a rapidly changing climate and ocean,” said Wabnitz, who also co-authored three chapters. “This book brings together the science needed to understand how climate change is reshaping fisheries and aquaculture and the benefits they deliver, and highlights the governance and adaptation pathways that can help secure resilient futures for both people and the sea.”
Tropical Pacific waters have warmed by around 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (one degree Celsius) since pre-industrial times. As the ocean warms, seawater settles into distinct layers based on temperature differences, which can lower oxygen levels and impact marine productivity. These shifting conditions can also prompt migratory species to seek new areas with their preferred temperature range.
For example, in 2021, the Western and Central Pacific Ocean accounted for 56% of global tuna production. However, new projections indicate that tuna populations are moving into international waters as ocean temperatures rise, jeopardizing the national revenues of countries that rely on income generated by tuna catches.
Seafood provides up to 90% of dietary animal protein in some Pacific countries, making the impacts of coral bleaching, habitat degradation, and human population growth particularly acute. The book highlights how declines in both coastal and commercial subsistence catches threaten not only food and nutrition security but also livelihoods and cultural practices that are fundamental to Pacific Island communities.
Projections show that coastal commercial and subsistence catches in the region could decline by up to 29% in 2050. Aquaculture, currently producing 8,348 tons (7,573 metric tonnes) valued at USD $85.3 million, also faces risks from warming temperatures, disease, and ocean acidification.
The book includes country chapters that translate regional science into national realities, providing each Pacific Island nation with tailored projections and adaptation priorities that can be acted upon.
“Under high-emissions scenarios, Palauans could face a shortfall of nine kilograms [20 pounds] of aquatic food per person,” said the Honourable Steven Victor, Palau’s Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Environment, in reference to Palau’s country chapter. “Fish is our primary protein and central to our identity. These figures matter. What this chapter provides is not only the diagnosis but the pathway forward.”
The book also offers a clear set of priorities: strengthened community-based fisheries management, coastal habitat restoration, climate-resilient aquaculture, improved governance, and better integration of oceanic fisheries into national nutrition strategies.
“Climate change will test our determination, ingenuity, and capacity to work together for a common purpose,” said SPC’s Director of Fisheries, Neville Smith. “There is too much at stake for us not to rise to the challenge.”
With its release at COP30, the book positions the Pacific Islands region not only as a source for climate-impact data but also as a global leader in climate-informed fisheries science, providing the evidence governments and partners need to chart a resilient, well-informed path for Pacific food systems and blue economies. Download the book for free from SPC.
This story was adapted from an article originally published by the Pacific Community (SPC).
Wabnitz is also affiliated with the University of British Columbia and the Stockholm Resilience Centre. The book includes contributions from Michelle Tigchelaar, a Center for Ocean Solutions Fellow who is a Senior Scientist at WorldFish in Malaysia.
