Researchers detect patterns in conflicts that shape ocean prosperity
In brief:
- Between 2008 and 2018, the most common types of conflicts across coastal countries in Africa were over access to ocean areas or resources. The majority were never resolved.
- A quarter of conflicts did not involve fisheries, highlighting the need to consider a wide range of involved parties, particularly as new ocean industries expand.
- Findings emphasize the importance of fair governance processes that involve all affected groups in conflict resolution and prevention.
Every day, a tug-of-war unfolds somewhere on the ocean: port expansion encroaches on nearshore fishing grounds, illegal sand mining erodes the infrastructure of coastal communities, and the designation of coastal areas for conservation jeopardizes the livelihoods of women fishers who harvest along the tideline.
Such conflicts over ocean access and resources are at the heart of a new paper published on March 26 in the journal One Earth. The co-authors analyzed more than 10 years of disputes reported in periodicals from coastal countries in Africa, where a variety of marine conflicts take place.
Most disputes concerned access to an area of the ocean or its resources, and the majority went unresolved. According to the analysis, more than a quarter of all conflicts did not involve fisheries, highlighting the involvement of other industries, like coastal development and energy, in ocean disputes.
“As new ocean industries expand and climate change reorders marine ecosystems, finding ways to resolve conflicts will become even more urgent,” said Elizabeth Selig, lead author and managing director of the Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, who has also studied how climate change is driving fish stocks across political boundaries and exacerbating conflicts. “To better manage or avoid conflicts, we need to understand where conflicts happen, the nature of disputes, and who is involved.”
The road to resolution
The study analyzed media coverage published between 2008 and 2018 across 34 coastal African countries to find documented disputes. Compiling their findings into a database, the co-authors looked to see which approaches to conflict, such as mediation or legal action, worked best. They also conducted an expert survey to gain additional insights into how conflicts were resolved.
“By analyzing patterns in conflict resolution, we can understand which types of conflicts are more intractable, identify successful approaches, and highlight where new tools may be needed,” said Nahla Achi, a former Stanford undergraduate research assistant at the Center for Ocean Solutions who helped to compile the database of media coverage.
In the surveys, experts reported community engagement as the most effective approach to resolving conflicts. Results from the database indicated that the majority of resolved conflicts were due to increased governance or enforcement. According to the co-authors, both approaches may be needed to address the complexity of issues underlying most conflicts.
Towards a ‘blue’ economy
How data can make a difference
In 2022, the High Court of South Africa ruled that proposed seismic surveys for energy exploration along the West Coast were unlawful because the planning process failed to consult or recognize small-scale fishers, despite the immediate risks these surveys posed to snoek, a locally consumed fish, and other marine species that provide food, nutrition, and income for fishing communities. An affidavit submitted by co-author Moenieba Isaacs drew on data generated by the same overall project that led to the new One Earth paper. The affidavit showed how economic development and related regulatory changes affect the environment and, in turn, the lives and livelihoods of small-scale fishers.
For example, the study found that most conflicts regarding the inequitable distribution of benefits involved small-scale fishers. Small-scale fishers, who typically fish close to shore, are often at odds with coastal development, yet they’re frequently overlooked in new project proposals. According to the co-authors, ensuring small-scale fishers and other marginalized groups participate in governance and planning processes is essential for addressing inequities.
“We hope our results help governments, the private sector, and civil society collaborate more effectively to identify potential points of conflict," said Selig. "Ensuring affected parties play meaningful roles in decision-making will be essential for designing equitable interventions and delivering on blue economy potential."
Other Stanford co-authors include Senior Data Scientist Shinnosuke Nakayama and Lead Scientist Colette Wabnitz of the Center for Ocean Solutions, which is based in the Woods Institute for the Environment at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. Wabnitz is also affiliated with the Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries at the University of British Columbia and the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University. Achi is now a senior project manager at the non-profit FishWise.
Other co-authors are affiliated with American University, Augur Bv, the Norwegian Computing Center, the Norwegian Institute for Water Research, the Peace Research Institute of Oslo, the University of Bergen, the University of Ghana, the University of Oslo, the University of Western Cape, the UWA Oceans Institute, and the Wildlife Conservation Society.
